Doomsday scenarios

Posted on March 9, 2011
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Up till now Peak Oil has been the preserve of the lunatic fringe.  Not anymore.  Shell finds the issue so pressing that they have taken the unprecedented move of releasing a publicly available discussion paper on the topic, which examines various scenarios leading up to the year 2050.  None of them are good. Most worrying of all is their statement that demand for oil will outpace supply by 2015.  That is in four years.  But there doesn’t appear to be any realistic discussion of this issue at any level of Government here or overseas. If major shortfalls in production are going to appear within four years, then enormous efforts need to be made in infrastructure development, right now to cope, or we’re all going to be up shit creek.  Decisions need to be made about alternative energy sources, nuclear fuel and natural gas processing, immediately.  It isn’t a happy read, but I think worthwhile for shaping our thinking on what could well be the major issue of the coming century. Read all about it here.

Here’s the key quote…

By 2015, growth in the production of easily accessible oil and gas will not match the projected rate of demand growth. While abundant coal exists in many parts of the world, transportation difficulties and environmental degradation ultimately pose limits to its growth. Meanwhile, alternative energy sources such as biofuels may become a much more significant part of the energy mix — but there is no “silver bullet” that will completely resolve supply-demand tension

By 2015, growth in the production of easily accessible oil and gas will not match
the projected rate of demand growth. While abundant coal exists in many parts
of the world, transportation difficulties and environmental degradation ultimately
pose limits to its growth. Meanwhile, alternative energy sources such as biofuels
may become a much more significant part of the energy mix — but there is no
“silver bullet” that will completely resolve supply-demand tension

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